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Navigation Hauptseite Themenportale Zufälliger Artikel. Diese Seite wurde zuletzt am 6. Januar um Subsalt reservoirs such as Tupi were unknown in the twentieth century, mainly because the industry was unable to probe them.
DaQing , China  will continue to play a major role in increasing the world's recoverable oil. The expected availability of petroleum resources has always been around 35 years or even less since the start of the modern exploration. The oil constant , an insider pun in the German industry, refers to that effect.
Peak oil is a term applied to the projection that future petroleum production whether for individual oil wells, entire oil fields, whole countries, or worldwide production will eventually peak and then decline at a similar rate to the rate of increase before the peak as these reserves are exhausted.
The peak of oil discoveries was in , and oil production per year has surpassed oil discoveries every year since Hubbert applied his theory to accurately predict the peak of U. This prediction was based on data available at the time of his publication in In the same paper, Hubbert predicts world peak oil in "half a century" after his publication, which would be Some of these predictions date from before the recession of the early s, and the consequent reduction in global consumption, the effect of which was to delay the date of any peak by several years.
Just as the U. Unconventional oil is petroleum produced or extracted using techniques other than the conventional methods.
In particular, the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has resulted in a significant increase in production from previously uneconomic plays. The large increase in tight oil production is one of the reasons behind the price drop in late Conventional vertical wells would be unable to economically retrieve these hydrocarbons.
Horizontal drilling, extending horizontally through the strata, permits the well to access a much greater volume of the strata. Hydraulic fracturing creates greater permeability and increases hydrocarbon flow to the wellbore. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. For the film, see Crude Oil film. For the fuel, see Petrol. For other uses, see Petroleum disambiguation. Pumpjack pumping an oil well near Lubbock, Texas.
An oil refinery in Mina Al Ahmadi , Kuwait. History of the petroleum industry. This section needs additional citations for verification. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources.
Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. October Learn how and when to remove this template message. Unconventional oil , Oil sands , and Oil shale reserves. This article needs to be updated. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. Global fossil carbon emissions, an indicator of consumption, from Oil consumption by percentage of total per region from to For oil production by country, see List of countries by oil production.
For oil reserves by country, see List of countries by proven oil reserves. Top oil-producing countries million barrels per day. World map with countries by oil production information from — Fossil fuel exporters and OPEC.
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Archived from the original on November 19, Critical Reviews in Environmental Control. World Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology. Retrieved October 20, This is correct, as there is no natural physical reason why the production of a resource should follow such a curve and little empirical evidence that it does. The report noted that Hubbert had used the logistic curve because it was mathematically convenient, not because he firmly believed it to be correct.
The study observed that in most cases, the asymmetric exponential model provided a better fit as in the case of Seneca cliff model  , and that peaks tended to occur well before half the oil had been produced, with the result that in nearly all cases, the post-peak decline was more gradual than the increase leading up to the peak. The demand side of peak oil over time is concerned with the total quantity of oil that the global market would choose to consume at various possible market prices and how this entire listing of quantities at various prices would evolve over time.
Global demand for crude oil grew an average of 1. After reaching a high of Energy demand is distributed amongst four broad sectors: This growth has largely come from new demand for personal-use vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. Transportation is therefore of particular interest to those seeking to mitigate the effects of peak oil. Although demand growth is highest in the developing world ,  the United States is the world's largest consumer of petroleum.
As countries develop , industry and higher living standards drive up energy use, oil usage being a major component. Thriving economies, such as China and India , are quickly becoming large oil consumers. Another significant factor affecting petroleum demand has been human population growth. The United States Census Bureau predicts that world population in will be almost double that of Some analysts argue that the cost of oil has a profound effect on economic growth due to its pivotal role in the extraction of resources and the processing, manufacturing, and transportation of goods.
Such a scenario would result in an inability for national economies to pay high oil prices, leading to declining demand and a price collapse. Our analysis suggests there are ample physical oil and liquid fuel resources for the foreseeable future.
However, the rate at which new supplies can be developed and the break-even prices for those new supplies are changing. Oil may come from conventional or unconventional sources. The terms are not strictly defined, and vary within the literature as definitions based on new technologies tend to change over time. Some use the terms "conventional" oil for what is included in the model, and "unconventional" oil for classes excluded.
In , Hubbert confined his peak oil prediction to that crude oil "producible by methods now in use. A study predicting an early peak excluded deepwater oil, tight oil, oil with API gravity less than Conventional oil is extracted on land and offshore using standard techniques,  and can be categorized as light, medium, heavy, or extra heavy in grade. The exact definitions of these grades vary depending on the region from which the oil came. Heavy refers to oil that has higher density and therefore lower API gravity.
While some of it can be produced using conventional techniques, recovery rates are better using unconventional methods. According to the International Energy Agency , conventional crude oil production peaked in , with al all-time maximum of 70 millions of barrels per day. All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas. It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil.
Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive. The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in the s  at around 55 billion barrels 8. But despite the fall-off in new field discoveries, and record-high production rates, the reported proved reserves of crude oil remaining in the ground in , which totaled 1, billion barrels, not counting Canadian heavy oil sands, were more than quadruple the proved reserves of billion barrels.
Energy Information Administration has pointed out that after the first wave of discoveries in an area, most oil and natural gas reserve growth comes not from discoveries of new fields, but from extensions and additional gas found within existing fields. A report by the UK Energy Research Centre noted that "discovery" is often used ambiguously, and explained the seeming contradiction between falling discovery rates since the s and increasing reserves by the phenomenon of reserve growth.
The report noted that increased reserves within a field may be discovered or developed by new technology years or decades after the original discovery. But because of the practice of "backdating," any new reserves within a field, even those to be discovered decades after the field discovery, are attributed to the year of initial field discovery, creating an illusion that discovery is not keeping pace with production.
Hubbert's peak projection for the United States depended on geological estimates of ultimate recoverable oil resources, but starting in his publication, he concluded that ultimate oil recovery was an output of his mathematical analysis, rather than an assumption.
He regarded his peak oil calculation as independent of reserve estimates. Many current 2P calculations predict reserves to be between and Gb, but some authors have written that because of misinformation, withheld information, and misleading reserve calculations, 2P reserves are likely nearer to — Gb.
Many of the so-called reserves are in fact resources. They're not delineated, they're not accessible, they're not available for production. One difficulty in forecasting the date of peak oil is the opacity surrounding the oil reserves classified as "proven". In many major producing countries, the majority of reserves claims have not been subject to outside audit or examination.
For the most part, proven reserves are stated by the oil companies, the producer states and the consumer states. All three have reasons to overstate their proven reserves: Besides the possibility that these nations have overstated their reserves for political reasons during periods of no substantial discoveries , over 70 nations also follow a practice of not reducing their reserves to account for yearly production. Analysts have suggested that OPEC member nations have economic incentives to exaggerate their reserves, as the OPEC quota system allows greater output for countries with greater reserves.
Kuwait , for example, was reported in the January issue of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly to have only 48 billion barrels 7. This report was based on the leak of a confidential document from Kuwait and has not been formally denied by the Kuwaiti authorities. This leaked document is from ,  but excludes revisions or discoveries made since then. Additionally, the reported 1. On the other hand, investigative journalist Greg Palast argues that oil companies have an interest in making oil look more rare than it is, to justify higher prices.
That trend of falling discoveries has continued in the ten years since the USGS made their assumption. The USGS is also criticized for other assumptions, as well as assuming production rates inconsistent with projected reserves. As conventional oil becomes less available, it can be replaced with production of liquids from unconventional sources such as tight oil , oil sands , ultra-heavy oils, gas-to-liquid technologies, coal-to-liquid technologies, biofuel technologies, and shale oil.
Reserve estimates are based on the oil price. Hence, unconventional sources such as heavy crude oil, oil sands, and oil shale may be included as new techniques reduce the cost of extraction. While the energy used, resources needed, and environmental effects of extracting unconventional sources have traditionally been prohibitively high, major unconventional oil sources being considered for large-scale production are the extra heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt of Venezuela ,  the Athabasca Oil Sands in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin ,  and the oil shale of the Green River Formation in Colorado , Utah , and Wyoming in the United States.
Chuck Masters of the USGS estimates that, "Taken together, these resource occurrences, in the Western Hemisphere , are approximately equal to the Identified Reserves of conventional crude oil accredited to the Middle East. Despite the large quantities of oil available in non-conventional sources, Matthew Simmons argued in that limitations on production prevent them from becoming an effective substitute for conventional crude oil.
Simmons stated "these are high energy intensity projects that can never reach high volumes" to offset significant losses from other sources. Moreover, oil extracted from these sources typically contains contaminants such as sulfur and heavy metals that are energy-intensive to extract and can leave tailings , ponds containing hydrocarbon sludge, in some cases.
The point in time when peak global oil production occurs defines peak oil. Yet others believe that the peak may be to some extent led by declining demand as new technologies and improving efficiency shift energy usage away from oil. Worldwide oil discoveries have been less than annual production since Because of this, oil production per capita peaked in preceded by a plateau during the period of — The increasing investment in harder-to-reach oil as of was said to signal oil companies' belief in the end of easy oil.
Among the reasons cited were both geological factors as well as "above ground" factors that are likely to see oil production plateau.
A Journal of Energy Security analysis of the energy return on drilling effort energy returned on energy invested , also referred to as EROEI in the United States concluded that there was extremely limited potential to increase production of both gas and especially oil. By looking at the historical response of production to variation in drilling effort, the analysis showed very little increase of production attributable to increased drilling.
This was because of diminishing returns with increasing drilling effort: The study concluded that even an enormous increase of drilling effort was unlikely to significantly increase oil and gas production in a mature petroleum region such as the United States. The assumption of inevitable declining volumes of oil and gas produced per unit of effort is contrary to recent experience in the US.
In the United States, as of , there has been an ongoing decade-long increase in the productivity of oil and gas drilling in all the major tight oil and gas plays. The US Energy Information Administration reports, for instance, that in the Bakken Shale production area of North Dakota, the volume of oil produced per day of drilling rig time in January was 4 times the oil volume per day of drilling five years previous, in January , and nearly 10 times the oil volume per day of ten years previous, in January In the Marcellus gas region of the northeast, The volume of gas produced per day of drilling time in January was 3 times the gas volume per day of drilling five years previous, in January , and 28 times the gas volume per day of drilling ten years previous, in January Average yearly gains in global supply from to were 1.
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas agreed with their decline rates, but considered the rate of new fields coming online overly optimistic. Entities such as governments or cartels can reduce supply to the world market by limiting access to the supply through nationalizing oil, cutting back on production, limiting drilling rights, imposing taxes, etc.
International sanctions, corruption, and military conflicts can also reduce supply. Another factor affecting global oil supply is the nationalization of oil reserves by producing nations. The nationalization of oil occurs as countries begin to deprivatize oil production and withhold exports. Kate Dourian, Platts' Middle East editor, points out that while estimates of oil reserves may vary, politics have now entered the equation of oil supply.
Major oil companies operating in Venezuela find themselves in a difficult position because of the growing nationalization of that resource. These countries are now reluctant to share their reserves. Saudi Arabia is also limiting capacity expansion, but because of a self-imposed cap, unlike the other countries.
OPEC is an alliance among 14 diverse oil-producing countries as of May OPEC's power was consolidated in the s and s as various countries nationalized their oil holdings, and wrested decision-making away from the " Seven Sisters " Anglo-Iranian, Socony, Royal Dutch Shell, Gulf, Esso, Texaco, Socal , and created their own oil companies to control the oil. OPEC often tries to influence prices by restricting production. It does this by allocating each member country a quota for production.
Members agree to keep prices high by producing at lower levels than they otherwise would. There is no way to enforce adherence to the quota, so each member has an individual incentive to "cheat" the cartel.
Commodities trader Raymond Learsy, author of Over a Barrel: To back his argument, he points to past false alarms and apparent collaboration. In , Hubbert predicted that world oil production would peak at a rate of However, a number of industry leaders and analysts believe that world oil production will peak between and , with a significant chance that the peak will occur before Papers published since have been relatively pessimistic. A Kuwait University study predicted production would peak in A validation of a significant study in the journal Energy proposed that it is likely that conventional oil production peaked, according to various definitions, between and A set of models published in a Ph.
Major oil companies hit peak production in The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy , "peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late.
The wide use of fossil fuels has been one of the most important stimuli of economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution , allowing humans to participate in takedown, or the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced.
Some believe that when oil production decreases, human culture and modern technological society will be forced to change drastically. The impact of peak oil will depend heavily on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of effective alternatives.
As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.
Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. The oil price historically was comparatively low until the oil crisis and the energy crisis when it increased more than tenfold during that six-year timeframe. Even though the oil price dropped significantly in the following years, it has never come back to the previous levels.
It is generally agreed that the main reason for the price spike in — was strong demand pressure. The consumption rates were far above new discoveries in the period, which had fallen to only eight billion barrels of new oil reserves in new accumulations in Oil price increases were partially fueled by reports that petroleum production is at    or near full capacity.
Besides supply and demand pressures, at times security related factors may have contributed to increases in prices,  including the War on Terror , missile launches in North Korea ,  the Crisis between Israel and Lebanon ,  nuclear brinkmanship between the U. Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves. This price drop has placed many US tight oil producers under considerable financial pressure. In the past, sudden increases in the price of oil have led to economic recessions , such as the and energy crises.
The effect the increased price of oil has on an economy is known as a price shock. In many European countries, which have high taxes on fuels , such price shocks could potentially be mitigated somewhat by temporarily or permanently suspending the taxes as fuel costs rise.
A baseline scenario for a recent IMF paper found oil production growing at 0. Researchers at the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum found that the economy can adjust to steady, gradual increases in the price of crude better than wild lurches.
Some economists predict that a substitution effect will spur demand for alternate energy sources , such as coal or liquefied natural gas.
This substitution can be only temporary, as coal and natural gas are finite resources as well. Prior to the run-up in fuel prices, many motorists opted for larger, less fuel-efficient sport utility vehicles and full-sized pickups in the United States, Canada, and other countries.
Fifth, that a major obstacle to more compact development in the United States is political resistance from local zoning regulators, which would hamper efforts by state and regional governments to participate in land-use planning. Thus, Canada's oil sands are not expected to provide more than a few million barrels per day in the foreseeable future.
Another trillion barrels are also said to be trapped in rocks in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming,  in the form of oil shale.